From November 9 to 13, a string of inflation and economic indicators from Japan, the US, and Europe will be released in succession. Above all, the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) due on the 10th is drawing the market's attention as the single most important factor that will shape the rate decision at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The October CPI to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, with the core index excluding volatile food and energy up 0.2%. In September, the headline figure rose 0.6% and the core rose 0.3%. Within the September breakdown, gasoline climbed 9.1% month-on-month and accounted for more than half of the headline increase. Energy rose 5.2%, housing costs rose 0.4%, and food was flat. Year-on-year, the headline was up 3.7%, the core up 2.6%, energy up 20.4%, and gasoline up 34.2%. If the increase exceeds market expectations, it would heighten awareness of persistent inflationary pressure, and expectations of further Fed tightening would likely drive dollar buying.
The breakdown of the September US CPI is as follows.
This time there is an unusual circumstance. Because the US government shutdown in October of last year (October 1 to November 12, 2025) prevented the BLS from conducting its sampling survey, the relevant data are missing, so year-on-year figures will not be published and only month-on-month figures will be released. Market participants will read the underlying inflation trend mainly from the month-on-month results. After the CPI release, remarks are scheduled from senior officials including Fed Governor Waller and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, which will also be watched as clues to the direction of monetary policy.
After the Fed raised its policy rate to 3.75-4.00% at its September meeting, it held steady at its October 27-28 meeting. However, there were two dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike, and Chair Warsh did not commit to a December rate hike, indicating a stance of deciding based on upcoming indicators. In the October employment report released on the 6th, nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 from the previous month, far exceeding market expectations (65,000 increase), and the August and September figures were revised up by a combined 84,000. As of the 6th, US short-term interest rate futures were pricing in about a 77% probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting. The outcome of the October CPI on the 10th will be the biggest focal point shaping that decision.
On the 13th of the same week, the US October Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be released. Market expectations are for a 0.4% month-on-month increase (September: +1.3%) and a 6.6% year-on-year increase (September: +6.3%), with the core seen up 0.3% month-on-month (September: +0.7%). This will serve as a gauge of how much upstream price pressure remains, and will also provide clues for the October PCE deflator to be released on the 25th (the inflation gauge the Fed emphasizes).
In the UK, the preliminary July-September Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure will be released on the 12th. Growth is expected to accelerate to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter from 0.5% in the April-June quarter. While services are underpinning the economy, the pattern of high prices and high interest rates weighing on household consumption and capital investment continues. The BOE decided on the 5th to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.00%. The decision passed by an 8-1 majority, with dissenting member Mann calling for a 0.5 percentage point hike to 4.25%, making for a strongly hawkish outcome. Markets have raised the probability of an additional December rate hike to around 50%, and the scenario envisioned is that a GDP reading above expectations would lead to pound buying, while a clear slowdown would lead to pound selling.
In Japan, the October Corporate Goods Price Index will be announced on the 12th. It is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year. In September it fell 0.3% month-on-month and rose 6.8% year-on-year, slowing from August's 7.6% but still at a high level. The focus is on how far rising raw material and energy prices are feeding through to business-to-business transactions, and an upside surprise would likely support expectations of an additional BOJ rate hike and invite yen buying.
Regarding the Bank of Japan, the main opinions from the monetary policy meeting held on October 29-30 will be published on the 10th. At that meeting, the BOJ decided to keep its policy rate (the uncollateralized overnight call rate) at around 1.25%. The 1.25% level is the highest since April 1995, and the next policy meeting will be held on December 17-18. Governor Kazuo Ueda, while indicating his view that the underlying inflation rate has reached the 2% target, has said about the timing of the next rate hike that "we will make a decision at each policy meeting, including the next one." The opinions will be valuable material for gauging each board member's stance and level of eagerness regarding an additional rate hike within the year.
In China, the October consumer price index and producer price index will be released on the 9th. CPI is expected to rise 0.8% year-on-year (previous: +0.9%), and PPI is expected to rise 5.4% (previous: +5.0%). September PPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, the highest since 2022, and the focus is on whether price increases at the production stage will feed through to consumer prices; if sluggish CPI growth continues, it would heighten awareness of weak domestic demand and could weigh on commodity currencies.
Among emerging economies, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will publish its quarterly inflation report on the 12th. Turkey's October CPI rose 29.77% year-on-year, slightly accelerating from 29.73% the previous month but staying below 30% for a second consecutive month. The central bank cut its policy rate by 1 percentage point to 36% on October 22, and some see additional rate cuts being discussed at the December monetary policy meeting. The contents of the report may be treated as a market factor.
Note: Forecasts are market consensus. The US CPI will take the unusual form of not publishing year-on-year figures.
The series of indicators carries important significance for gauging whether major central banks will pivot their policy management toward curbing inflation or supporting the economy. In the US, if inflation stickiness is confirmed, rate-hike expectations could reignite, and through a stronger dollar and weaker bonds, pressure for capital outflows from emerging economies could intensify. In the UK, if expectations of continued rate hikes strengthen, the pound is likely to be bought, while in Japan, if corporate goods price growth exceeds expectations, yen buying is likely to prevail.
The dollar-yen rate is currently moving around 158 yen per dollar (as of November 6). In the foreign exchange market, sharp swings around indicator releases are expected. Many market participants believe that if US CPI exceeds expectations month-on-month, the dollar will be bought further, while a downside surprise would accelerate dollar selling on fading rate-hike expectations. In Japan, whether the BOJ's main opinions confirm a stance among board members favorable to an additional rate hike will be the focal point shaping the direction of the yen.
