Daily Spotlight: Payrolls Rise 57,000
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Employment Situation for June, showing that the U.S. added 57,000 nonfarm jobs. There was strength in professional and business services; social assistance; and the stalwart Healthcare sector. Employment in leisure and hospitality declined. Our forecast was for an increase of 125,000 new jobs, while the consensus was 110,000. The results reduced the three-month average to 111,000 from 188,000. May's payrolls were revised lower by 43,000 to 129,000 and April was reduced by 31,000 to 148,000. The BLS Diffusion Index indicated 54.4% of 250 private industries are hiring, down from 56.0% in May. Manufacturing rose to 55.6% from 52.8%. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, below our estimate and the consensus. Average hourly earnings increased $0.13 month to month and are 3.5% higher year over year. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours. Employment showed little change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; other services; and government. Employment in professional and business services increased by 36,000 and has added 172,000 jobs since a recent low in October 2025. The manufacturing sector added 3,000 jobs. Stock futures rose after the report and the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped by four basis points (bps) to 4.47%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is closely tied to expectations for
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