A decline in the share of Bitcoin’s realized cap held by coins unmoved for 18 months or longer points to the ‘early stages’ of a bull market, analysis says.
Bitcoin (BTC) onchain transaction data is hinting at the start of a new uptrend as long-term holders retreat from selling.
- The percentage of Bitcoin’s realized cap involving coins dormant for 18 months or longer has remained broadly stable since mid-September, dropping from 26.98% to 26.59%.
- CryptoQuant analysis showed that longer reductions in the cohort’s onchain activity accompanied the start of previous Bitcoin bull markets.
- Coins that last moved at least five years ago account for around 34,000 BTC in monthly onchain volume — half that of 2024.
Old coin dormancy points to “early stages” of Bitcoin bull market
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that investors holding coins for 18 months or longer are starting to become less active.
On Sept. 16, the 18-month-plus cohort’s share of realized cap — the value of all coins at the price they last moved onchain — hit 26.98%, its highest since mid-November 2024.
Analyzing the data, CryptoQuant sees a historical trend that preceded Bitcoin bull markets now repeating.
“The pattern has always been the same: when the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months across the entire network rises and then starts to decline, a strong rally follows,” it wrote in a blog post.
It included a chart of UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age bands, sized according to their contribution to the realized cap.
Bitcoin realized cap by UTXO age. Source: CryptoQuant
Reduced onchain spending by long-term investors reflects a move to maintain BTC exposure to increase profitability in the long term. The contribution by these investors remained in a broad uptrend beginning in November 2025, with profit-taking activity rising as BTC/USD fell further from its current all-time high of $126,200.
CryptoQuant noted that the UTXO trend reversal remains modest, implying that the market is witnessing only the very start of more bullish conditions.
“The market has now shifted into a bullish cycle, but we still appear to be in the early stages of the cycle, where such a signal has not even begun yet,” it commented.
“This looks like a point where we can remain positive about both the potential upside and the duration of the rally.”
Bitcoin drawdown from all-time highs still shallowest on record
Among long-term holders, only the 18-month-to-two-year cohort is currently in net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193. Its cost basis currently sits at $93,193.
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Since its 2025 all-time highs, Bitcoin has fallen below this cohort’s cost basis, while older cohorts have remained in aggregate profit. The year 2026 thus marks the first bear market in which price has stayed above the 2-3-year cohort’s cost basis, CryptoQuant shows.
Bitcoin realized price by UTXO age. Source: CryptoQuant
In a report released last week, crypto investment company Galaxy Digital described the “shallowest” bear market on record, with a maximum drawdown versus all-time highs of -53%.
BTC in custody for five years or more, meanwhile — coins that Galaxy says were responsible for the supply glut that halted price upside at $126,200 — are now also supporting the case for a fresh long-term uptrend.
“Coins unmoved for five years or more moved at 67k BTC a month in 2024 and 47k in 2025… totaling 1.11 million BTC since October 2024, the largest old-coin distribution of any cycle, most of it absorbed by the spot ETFs and BTC digital asset treasury (DAT) companies,” it wrote.
In 2026, the volume supplied by the five-year-plus cohort has averaged 34,000 BTC per month, half as much as in 2024.
Five-year dormant BTC supply UTXO data (screenshot). Source: Galaxy Digital
