Stocks ease despite upbeat Samsung forecast, yen languishes

US stocks are rising, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures trading at or around record highs as oil prices fall further on hopes that the US and Iran could soon agree on a deal that would normalise crude supplies.

US Futures

Dow futures 0.26%, S&P futures 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures 0.15%

In Europe

• U.S. stocks are heading towards more record highs
• US -Iran deal optimism lifts stocks
• Jobless claims remain low at 200k ahead of tomorrow’s NFP
• Oil falls further on Middle East deal hopes

US Stocks Hit New Record Highs

US stocks rise as falling oil prices lift sentiment amid US-Iran deal hopes,

The US and Iran are reportedly moving towards a limited agreement to halt the conflict, which could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have dropped below $100 a barrel, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk appetite across equity markets.

Markets will be watching closely for Tehran’s response to the proposal, with investors increasingly pricing in a de-escalation scenario that could reduce geopolitical risk premiums across energy markets.

On the data front, US jobless claims rose to 200,000 from 190,000 the previous week. However, the increase remains consistent with a historically resilient labour market.

The data follows yesterday’s ADP employment report, which showed US private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April, marking the strongest increase in 15 months and reinforcing expectations that the labour market remains stable despite elevated energy prices and tighter financial conditions.

Attention is now turning to tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report, where economists expect 60,000 jobs to have been added in April, down sharply from 178,000 in March. While the pace of hiring is expected to slow, the broader trend still points to a labour market that is cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply.

As a result, markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated through much of 2026, given ongoing labour market resilience and inflation that remains above the Fed’s target.

Federal Reserve officials Neel Kashkari, Beth Hammack, and John Williams are all due to speak later in the session, with investors looking for further clues on the outlook for rates and inflation.

Corporate Movers

Snap (NYSE:SNAP) is tumbling 9% after Q1 advertising revenue was hit by the conflict in the Middle East and slowing growth in the US advertising market.

Shake Shack is falling 17% pre-market after the burger chain’s Q1 results missed expectations and the company posted an operating loss of $2.6 million. EPS also missed forecasts, coming in at break-even versus expectations of $0.12 per share.

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) is rising more than 3% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue. EPS came in at $2.83 versus forecasts of $2.74, while revenue reached $6.52 billion compared with expectations of $6.47 billion.

Shell (NYSE:SHEL) has gained 1.8% after posting stronger-than-expected Q1 profits, although the energy giant reduced the pace of its quarterly share buyback programme to $3 billion from $3.5 billion previously.

S&P 500 – Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has extended its recovery from the June 30, 2026 low, climbing to a fresh record high of 7,384. However, the RSI remains deep in overbought territory, suggesting that some consolidation or a short-term pullback could emerge before the next leg higher.

Immediate support can be seen around 7,300, where the rising trendline converges with the psychological round number. Additional support lies at 7,200, while stronger support is located around 7,000, which marks both a key psychological level and the January high.

On the upside, buyers will look to extend gains towards 7,400 and then 7,500 as the next logical resistance targets.

FX: USD Falls, GBP Rises

The US dollar is falling further on Thursday amid growing hopes that a Middle East agreement could soon be reached, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing demand for safe-haven assets.

The greenback, which initially benefited from geopolitical inflows at the start of the conflict, is now trading around a two-week low as investors rotate back into risk-sensitive assets.

EUR/USD is rising on improved market sentiment despite softer eurozone retail sales data. Retail sales in the bloc fell 0.1% month-on-month in March, outperforming expectations for a 0.3% decline.

GBP/USD is also advancing amid broad US dollar weakness and improving sentiment surrounding US-Iran negotiations. However, investors are continuing to monitor UK local elections, which are expected to deliver a setback for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the governing Labour Party.

Oil Slumps Further on US-Iran Deal Hopes

Oil prices are extending losses on Thursday, with Brent falling more than 2% and slipping below $100 a barrel.

The move lower comes amid renewed optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement, which could pave the way for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and improve global crude supply flows.

Today’s decline follows heavy selling on Wednesday, when both WTI and Brent dropped more than 7%, falling to their lowest levels in two weeks as traders priced in a reduced geopolitical risk premium.

If a deal materialises, oil prices could fall further as supply concerns ease and war-related premiums evaporate. However, any signs of renewed escalation could quickly reverse the recent decline and trigger another sharp rally in crude prices.

Meanwhile, data released yesterday showed that US crude inventories declined for a second consecutive week, highlighting that underlying supply conditions remain relatively tight despite the recent fall in prices.