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Tuesday, 10 November 2026

Private Trade News

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119% of Cash Flow? This 12.8% Payer Is Living on Borrowed Time

Private Trade News venue-risk note (2026-11-10): The mood? Still fearful. Inflation? Still too high. And some corners of the market (I’m looking at you, tech) are still looking overstretched. Don’t get me… Primary source: original at Nasdaq Market Structure (nasdaq.com).

· Nasdaq Market Structure

The mood? Still fearful. Inflation? Still too high. And some corners of the market (I’m looking at you, tech) are still looking overstretched.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m still bullish. At some point, the Iran conflict will likely wind down. That would take some of the strength out of oil prices.

Meantime, AI continues its cost-cutting—and profit-boosting—march across the economy. And as we discussed a couple weeks ago, we’ve got the calendar at our backs, with the third year of the four-year presidential cycle historically the best for stocks.

“Addition By Subtraction” Could Be Our Best Post-Midterm Play

The market has whipsawed since the vote. And when volatility flares, it’s a good time to unload wobbly payers we own, since the weakest stocks tend to get hit the hardest.

Because we know that every one of these laggards takes up a spot a stronger payer could be holding. We want to free up that spot now, so we avoid the likely dividend cut (and the share-price crash that often follows) and free up cash to put to work on dips.

With that in mind, here are three payers I’d show the door now.

Post-Midterm Sell Call No. 1: A 12.8% Yield That’s as Dangerous as It Looks

Western Union (WU) has been the go-to service for immigrants sending money to family back home. The walk-up customer, who visits its stores with cash in hand, has typically been its bread and butter.

If that sounds like a business that’s ripe for disruption, trust your instincts. Cash, as I’m sure you’ll agree, is so 20th century. These days, it’s all about taps and online transfers.

That’s opened the door to cheap money-transfer apps that peel business off Western Union. That, plus fewer immigrants to the US overall, has fed into WU’s long-term revenue slide, which has accelerated in recent years:

The 12.8% payout? It’s eaten up 119% of the free cash flow the company has generated in the nine months ended September 30. That’s despite the fact that the dividend hasn’t budged in more than five years.

And that’s before we get to WU’s $2.9 billion in debt, which exceeds its market cap—or its total value on the stock market—of $2.3 billion. Yikes!

The company is scrambling to stabilize its outlook, quickly adopting AI and cutting staff. These moves, plus a potential easing of immigration rules under the newly elected Democratic Congress, may be part of why the stock popped last Thursday, after earnings came out, even as the broader market fell.

But what ultimately happens on the AI and political fronts is anyone’s guess. And this latest jump was cold comfort for WU shareholders, who’ve seen their total return fall 38% in the last decade, while the S&P 500 soared 335%.

My take? This latest jump is a cue to sell. Shareholders should take it.

Post-Midterm Sell Call No. 2: Hormel’s “Overcooked” 5.1% Dividend

We’re no strangers to Hormel Foods (HRL). The stock was a stable presence in the portfolio of my Hidden Yields service during the pandemic, until we sold it in April 2023.

What happened? Inflation has driven up Hormel’s ingredient costs. Meantime, the food business is cutthroat, making it tough for the company to pass those costs on.

It’s a classic “pinch” being felt across many sectors, food stocks chief among them. Hormel is responding by cutting costs, including the recent sale of its Brazilian business. But you and I both know that cutting your way to profits has a way of becoming a downward spiral.

Which brings me to the payout. To be clear, I’m not as worried about this one as I am about WU’s monster 12.8% yield. That’s in part because HRL is a Dividend King, having raised its payout for more than 50 years. It won’t surrender its throne easily.

That said, the company’s free cash flow (FCF) payout ratio is tight right now, at 82.1% over the 12 months ended July 26, way up from a trailing-12-month ratio of 49% a decade ago:

If that trend doesn’t turn around, management will feel more pressure to make a move. And even a dividend freeze would likely weigh on the stock, given its kingly stature (and 5.1% yield).

The bottom line on HRL? The best time to sell was three years ago. The second best time is now.

Post-Midterm Sell Call No. 3: A 4.7% Dividend Running on Fumes

Ford Motor Co. (F) pays four quarterly dividends of $0.15 each, then a special dividend, typically in February. The base payout gives the stock a 4.7% current yield.

Notice I said “typically” there. This past February, Ford skipped the special payout, leaving investors with just the regular dividend:

Emphasizing special payouts lets Ford lever the payout up and down without the drama of announcing a cut. It’s a smart plan, but I wouldn’t expect much, if anything, this February. For one, Ford’s EV segment continues to hemorrhage money, to the tune of a projected $4 billion on the year.

Plus, the company can’t seem to get out of its own way on electrification: In late 2025, it scrapped the all-electric F-150 Lightning and its plans for larger EVs, taking $19.5 billion in charges. It’s shifting to hybrids, whose sales have spiked since the Iran conflict drove fuel prices above $4 a gallon.

Trouble is, its hybrid lineup is thin: two pickups (the Maverick and F-150) and the Lincoln Nautilus SUV, with the Escape hybrids and Lincoln Corsair on the way out.

To be fair, the dividend is covered, at about 47% of the last 12 months of FCF, but capital expenditures continue to climb, hitting $9.8 billion in the 12 months ended September 30, up 56% from five years ago.

And the car business is dealing with a US consumer whose wage growth (up 3.1% in September) trails inflation (up 3.6%). That calls into question how much higher car prices, and sales, can go.

Finally there’s trade: The US has opted not to renew the USMCA trade pact with Canada and Mexico, and is currently in protracted negotiations (and in the case of Canada, a trade war). That adds more uncertainty to a company whose supply chains stretch across the continent, and that’s already paying about $2 billion a year in tariffs.

The takeaway? Ford, and all auto stocks, are dividend distractions. Let’s leave them in the dust and focus on the high-yielders, and dividend growers, elsewhere.

Swap Your Wobbly Payers for These 5 “Recession-Resistant” Dividends

So where should we put the cash from these sell calls?

Simple. Into payers built to keep raising their dividends.

Through political shifts. Through inflation. Deflation. Market crashes. All of it.

That’s exactly what I hunt for in my Hidden Yields service. Every pick has to clear what I call the “Three Pillars”:

  • A dividend that’s growing, and fast.
  • A share price that hasn’t caught up (yet!).
  • A management team buying back stock, boosting earnings per share and other per-share metrics in the process.

When a stock has all three of these, it gives us the perfect “dividend cycle”: a rising payout, which pulls up the share price, while buybacks shrink the share count.

That, in turn, helps boost the payout. Rinse and repeat!

These 5 companies are my dividend-growth picks now. Each one is built to keep its payout climbing through a downturn, with the potential to double our money as the crowd catches on.

I’ve put all five in an exclusive Special Report, “5 Recession-Resistant Dividend Stocks With 100% Upside.” Click here and I’ll tell you more about these 5 recession-resistant dividend growers and give you your free copy.